Archive for the ‘Market’ Category

How Long Can Illugi Hide?

Friday, April 16th, 2010

After the state announced that it was going to take over 75% of Glitnir it was clear that Stodir/FL Group, the largest owner of the bank would go under. It had been clear for some time that Baugur, Stodir/FL Group’s owner was in a bad shape financially. This created an immense problem for two funds owned by Glitnir, Fund 1 and Fund 9, as their more than 50% of their total assets were in Baugur and Stodir/FL Group.

At a board meeting at Glitnir it was decided that the bank would buy all the Stodir/FL Group shares from the funds. Larus Welding, CEO says in the report that he had met with Geir Haarde and Arni Mathiesen about this, as it was known that the state would becoming an owner of the bank at the time.

In a phone call with Geir, “Geir had said that this was a difficult issue but indicated, “yes, I suppose this has to be done”. Arni had not objected. The shares were bought for 10.7 billion ISK.

Larus also says that “Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson had sat with us earlier in the day and so had Illugi Gunnarsson, a board-member in these funds. Illugi emphasized strongly that this should be solved, so this was approved by the board and done.”

Geir said to the committee that he thought Larus was introducing the issue to himself and Arni but not looking for approval or denial, and to examine if they had any objections. Geir admits that “If we had said no we don’t want this at all, then I suppose they would have though this over.”

A few days earlier, the management of Glitnir bought 33 billions ISK worth of shares from the fund. Three days after, the resolution committee took over.

This is from the report, translated from Vb.is.

I urge you to read this from one year ago and ask yourself how long can somebody like Illugi hide within Althing without answering for his part in this and blatantly misleading voters?

Related posts:

  1. A good solution for everyone involved
  2. MP’s Answers Raise More Questions About Glitnir’s Fund 9
  3. Who Were Able To Dump Their FL Group Stock Into Fund 7 and Fund 9?

The Pastries Experiment (Video)

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

From the report, Ossur Skarphedinsson described a government meeting with Halldor J. Kristjansson, Sigurjon Th. Arnason and Bjorgolfur Thor from Landsbankinn.

“They came to introduce to us some “great offer”. And he (Bjorgolfur) sat there in his fine suit, a real “seller” and selling something where they were supposed to get Glitnir free and a lot of other things and then all the currency reserve and some “guarantee” as well. Halldor Kristjansson sat there like a beaten dog and didn’t comment much. Then the meeting was over. Sigurjon was there, there were pastries on the tables, cut in half, big pastries. Sigurjon a large man has a big mouth and when they were leaving, he got one of the pastries, stuffed it in one part in his face and said, “I don’t believe in this, I don’t believe in this”. Then a hand with a gold-watch came and pulled him out of there.”

Konrad Jonsson just attempted this monumental task as you can see in these videos:

Hopefully he will continue to enact events from the report for us in the coming weeks.

Related posts:

  1. The billion dollar question
  2. Landsbankinn Assured The Dutch That Iceland Would Pay
  3. Libertarian Experiment In Iceland Fails

Outside Their Capabilities – Politicians Can Not Say Sorry For Incompetence

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Everyone named in the Special Investigation Committee‘s report is asking everyone else to accept responsibility. But nobody has the guts to take the first step.

Why the hesitance? It is quite understandable if you look at it from the viewpoint of someone who‘s wrangled their way to the top in Icelandic politics and banking. They usually don‘t owe their position to any outstanding personal qualities. They‘ve just said yes and nodded in the right places for their party or their friends for long enough to be next in line when a position opens up.

Think about the career of Bjorgvin G. Sigurdsson for example. BA in history and philosophy from the University of Iceland, journalist at Vikubladid and editor of Studentabladid. CEO of Reykjavik Utgafa (a business so small it is hardly google-able). Then CEO of the Social Democrats and its parliamentary group. Campaign manager for the Social Democrats in South-Iceland and Arborg. Member of Parliament. Then Minister of Commerce with prime responsibility for financial markets, currency, competition issues, businesses, the Central Bank etc.!

What on earth in Bjorgvin G. Sigurdsson‘s career could have possibly prepared him for anything but becoming a tiny little deer, facing enormous bulldozer headlights during the economic crash?

He is responsible for accepting a job which was grossly incompatible with his capabilities and experience. Perhaps the only thing he was qualified for was posing during photo ops like the one where he handed an award to Landsbankinn for the best annual report of 2007. And in the final hour he was working with a finance minister who is a vetenarian by trade and two laissez-faire politician lawyers who have never been outside the protective shell of their party acting as PM and Central Bank governors. The responsibility of those who put Bjorgvin there, like Ingibjorg Solrun Gisladottir and Ossur Skarphedinsson is great. Bjorgvin should claim victim status in further investigations into his negligence, it would suit his current image of a child in his fathers clothes. When the NY traffic controller brought his kids to work recently, it was him who got the heat, not the kids. They just didn‘t know any better. Bjorgvin’s defence? He was just there “obeying orders”, playing along, participating in a game of snakes and ladders where he had not set the rules. He was just unfortunate to have rolled the dice and landed on a snake.

These examples are everywhere in Icelandic politics. Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir had worked for one year at a law office after graduation when she was handpicked to lead a content department within the State Broadcasting (RUV). Since then her career has been one job after another working selflessly for the party. This did not stop her from suggesting that an expert from Merrill Lynch should be re-educated for his (later to be proven absolutely correct) observations as a financial analyst. This morning, Thorgerdur brushed away questions on the radio regarding her husband‘s billions borrowed from Kaupthing to buy shares in the bank itself saying this had nothing to do with her. Not realising that she personally stood to benefit from these loans, suggests that re-education might just be beyond such a hardened political trench-warmer herself. She has never been brought up by the system in which she excelled to accept responsibility, only to enjoy the gains.

To regain credibility the parties need to shake up their ladder and get rid of ministers like Katrin Juliusdottir (no college degree, purchasing manager at a small company, project manager at software developer, then MP and then MINISTER OF INDUSTRY) and Kristjan Moller (physical education degree, teacher degree, PE teacher, PE rep, shopkeeper, then MP and then MINISTER OF TRANSPORTATION). The value placed on expertice and knowledge  in the nation‘s important affairs is degrading and we should not expect anything more from the yes ministers than chaos, bad decisions and further neglicence.

Appointing Gylfi Magnusson and Ragna Arnadottir as independent ministers was a fortunate step foward for the Social Democrats. The goal should be a total separation of powers where the executive branch is elected seperately from the legislative branch. The funny thing is that despite Ragna and Gylfi are now the most popular ministers according to polls, the Social Democratic leadership has been under great pressure from the people stuck in the ladder below, to oust the two because it is somebody‘s turn next to overestimate their capabilities and underestimate the tasks that come with running a country.

Related posts:

  1. Finally resignations
  2. Seriously?
  3. The fact

The List Of Those Who Have Accepted Responsibility

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Below is a list of those politicians, investors and bankers who have accepted responsibility for their part in the economic crash in Iceland after the publishing of the Special Investigation Committee’s Report.

1. Bjorgolfur Thor apologized to the Icelandic nation in an open letter in Frettabladid April 14, 2010.

2.

3.

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30.

Related posts:

  1. EU Question List Just About Ready
  2. Consumer Social Responsibility Needed
  3. Apology Accepted But Let’s Talk About This Bonus System Thing

The Special Report – Bits & Pieces

Monday, April 12th, 2010

The long-awaited report is out and it appears that the wait was worth it. It is more revealing and tougher than most people expected. Bits and pieces here taken together from the reporting of visir.is, dv.is, eyjan.is, pressan.is and mbl.is

Of course many Facebookers and bloggers of left and right leanings are already finding blame with each other. The focus in the media appears slightly biased towards its ownership groups.

- David Oddson who is hiding abroad questions whether two of the members of the three man committee which delivered the report were fit to work on it due to a comment in a US school newspaper by one and the fact that the other’s daughter in law worked at the Financial Authority. Better late than never for the man who got his son, his relatives and his group of friends an array of official positions and jobs to worry about nepotism and connections.

The 30 people who owed the banks’ the most money

1 Robert Tchenguiz 113,4 billions ISK (Exista chairman, UK investor and major pub crawler)
2 Jón Ásgeir Jóhannesson 102,0 billions ISK (Baugur, Glitnir, FL Group, Hamleys and other toys)
3 Ólafur Ólafsson 61,1 billions ISK (Kaupthing, used Hauck & Aufhauser as a front in getting Bunadarbankinn, Samskip, Elton John afficionado)
4 Hannes Þór Smárason 51,8 billions ISK (Formerly of Decode and FL Group. Dabbled around in Reykjavik Energy with the Independence Party and Progressive Party city councilmen)
5 Ása K Ásgeirsdóttir 50,8 billions ISK (Jon Asgeir Johannesson’s mother. Grandmother unavailable for sale)
6 Ingibjörg Stefanía Pálmadóttir 50,7 billions ISK (Jon Asgeir Johannesson’s wife and 101 Hotel owner)
7 Jóhannes Jónsson 50,5 billions ISK (Jon Asgeir Johannesson’s father and founder of Bonus which would like you to know that the company has never sold cigarettes and is therefore socially responsible)
8 Björgólfur Guðmundsson 47,3 billions ISK (Russian brewer in shouting distance with the Independence Party)
9 Pálmi Haraldsson 39,9 billions ISK (Jon Asgeir Johannesson’s little…  Fons, FL Group, Iceland Express, proved his mantle when found guilty of price collusion)
10 Björgólfur T Björgólfsson 39,3 billions ISK (Bjorgolfur’s son who believes in money heaven. Landsbankinn, Actavis, Novator)
11 Lýður Guðmundsson 36,5 billions ISK (Bakkavor brother, Siminn, Exista, Kaupthing)
12 Ágúst Guðmundsson 36,5 billions ISK (Bakkavor brother, Siminn, Exista, Kaupthing)
13 Jóhannes Kristinsson 35,4 billions ISK (Fons, Palmi Haraldsson’s partner)
14 Magnús Kristinsson 31,4 billions ISK (Fishing quota king, Toyota Iceland, Domino’s Pizza)
15 Lóa Skarphéðinsdóttir 28,4 billions ISK (Magnus Kristinsson’s wife, Arni Johnesen fan)
16 Unknown foreigner 28,3 billions ISK (who?)
17 Jákup á Dul Jacobsen 27,9 billions ISK (Faroe Island businessman of Rumfatalagerinn. Built the tallest building in Iceland in the good times)
18 Jón Helgi Guðmundsson 26,0 billions ISK (Byko, Norvik, IP acceptable grocer)
19 Karl Emil Wernersson 23,2 billions ISK (Milestone, Glitnir, Lyf og Heilsa…dabbles in property with Independence Party chairman Bjarni Benediktsson)
20 Hreinn Loftsson 22,9 billions ISK (Jon Asgeir Johannesson’s former oddjob…David Oddson’s former assistant)
21 Kristín Jóhannesdóttir 22,8 billions ISK (Jon Asgeir Johannesson’s sister)
22 Steingrímur Wernersson 22,1 billions ISK (Karl’s brother)
23 Gylfi Ómar Héðinsson 18,3 billions ISK (BYGG, constructions)
24 Kristján V Vilhelmsson 18,2 billions ISK (Fishing quota king, Samherji)
25 Guðmundur Kristjánsson 18,2 billions ISK (Brim, fishing quota king)
26 Gunnar Þorláksson 18,1 billions ISK (BYGG, constructions)
27 Þorsteinn Már Baldvinsson 17,5 billions ISK (Former Glitnir board chairman, fishing quota king, Samherji)
28 Benedikt Sveinsson 15,6 billions ISK (Bjarni Benediktsson’s father. N1)
29 Þorsteinn M Jónsson 14,2 billions ISK (Coca Cola Iceland, FL Group, Jon Asgeir’s little…)
30 Guðbjörg M Matthíasdóttir 13,8 billions ISK (Fishing quota queen, Morgunbladid’s owner, David Oddson fan)

- Jon Asgeir Johannesson, his family and their companies became too big to fail in a literal sense by owing 700 billion to the banks at the end of 2008. The same could be said of the Bjorgolfurs’ at Landsbankinn and Olafur Olafsson at Kaupthing. If the banks had called in on any of those then it would have had disastrous consequences.

- Inga Jona Thordardottir resigned from FL Group’s board in 2005, because 3 billion ISK disappeared from the company’s accounts without explanation. The chairman of the board, Hannes Smarason was doing things without CEO Ragnhildur Geirsdottir’s knowledge and she threatened to go to the police. Ragnhildur resigned shortly after with a large parachute. Inga Jona is the wife of Geir Haarde.

- The Coalition of Young Independence Party Members (SUS) says it did not know anything of grants amounting to  33,7 and 8 million ISK from Landsbankinn and Kaupthing in 2005-2007. Then chairman, Borgar Thor Einarsson, Geir Haarde’s stepson. CEO of Landsbankinn, former SUS member Sigurjon Th. Arnason. Borgar Thor’s successor, Thorlindur Kjartansson, Landsbankinn’s employee.

- Current MP Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson, then economic advisor to Geir Haarde lied to Jon Thor Sturluson on September 27 2008, when the minister of commerce’s assistant when he called to ask what meetings were taking place in the prime ministry. He said nothing was going on, just talking about the banks.

- Jon Asgeir Johannesson and his wife Ingibjorg Palmadottir have moved their legal residence to the UK.

- Members of the press owed the banks a good deal of money. Bjorn Ingi Hrafnsson has temporarily stepped down to “defend his good name”. Bjorn Ingi, a Progressive Party city councilman, assistant to PM Halldor Asgrimsson and now editor of Pressan.is owed Kaupthing 536 million ISK. Then Morgunbladid’s editor, Styrmir Gunnarsson owed all three banks around 100 million in 2007. Oli Bjorn Karason, one of Iceland’s reporters most likely to work for Fox News owed 200 million.

- David Oddson’s relationship with the Social Democrat’s ministers was such that regularly important meetings on the banking sector were held without the Minister of Commerce knowledge. David did warn about the impending financial crash, but offered no advice how to respond expecting the government to shoulder responsibility. It in turn expected the same.

- Processes and documenting from David Oddson’s time in the Central Bank were lax to say the least according to the report. For example, in March 2008, the Central Bank forgot to extend a 500 million USD  line of credit with the BIS in Basel, depriving the bank of much needed currency.

- Arni Mathiesen, then minister of finance thought about asking his wife to go out and buy as much milk as possible on September 30, 2008 after a meeting with David Oddson. Arni and David are both accused of gross negligence in the report, as are Ingimundur Fridriksson and Eirikur Gudnason the other two CB governors and Geir Haarde, Bjorgvin G. Sigurdsson and Jonas Fr. Jonsson of the Financial Authority.

Ten members of Parliament with more than 100 million outstanding to the banks through their own ventures or their spouse’s:

1. Solveig Petursdottir, Independence Party (Speaker of Parliament)- 3.635 million

2. Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir, Independence Party (Vice Chairman and Minister of Education) – 1.683 million

3. Herdis Thordardottir, Independence Party – 1.020 million

4. Ludvik Bergvinsson, Social Democrats – 755 million

5. Jonina Bjartmarz, Progressive Party – 283 million

6. Arni Magnusson, Progressive Party (Minister of Social Affairs) – 265 million

7. Armann Kr. Olafsson, Independence Party (Currently leading the IP candidacy in Kopavogur’s council elections) -  248 million

8. Bjarni Benediktsson, Independence Party (Chairman) – 174 million

9. Asta Möller, Independence Party – 141 million

10. Olof Nordal, Independence Party – 113 million

- Bjarni Armannsson’s contract as Glitnir CEO quintupled in three years from 9 million a month to 50 million ISK a month from 2004-2005. Larus Welding’s 5 billion ISK contract was sealed in half an hour.

- David Oddson threatened Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson on September 29, 2008 when the latter said that if the state took over 75% in Glitnir the consequences would be disastrous. Tryggvi says that David had said “Outside the PM is shaking like a leaf in the wind and can not make a decision. He listens to you and you are undermining this. If this does not work out then I will personally make sure you can not thrive in Iceland anymore”.

- Ossur Skarphedinsson was naked in the locker room in World Class when Ingibjorg Solrun Gisladottir asked him to go to a crisis meeting in Glitnir and not involve Bjorgvin G. Sigurdsson, minister of commerce from their own party.

- Bjorgolfur Thor managed to borrow 24 billion ISK from Landsbankinn on September 30, 2008.

- David Oddson wanted to lead an emergency government when the collapse was taking place. The Social Democrats rejected it. Ossur Skarphedinsson says that Geir Haarde was shaken when he replied “You can not do this to me. I can not go up there and tell David this”. He did and the Central Bank governor who would be leader stormed out.

- Glitnir’s Fund 9 grew rapidly from April 2007 when Baugur Group became a large shareholder in Glitnir. Its investments grew by 400% and almost only contained shares in companies connected to Baugur. One of the fund’s chairs was Independence Party MP, Illugi Gunnarsson.

- The committee thinks it was “unfortunate that former politicians are chosen to lead the Central Bank”.

- Employees from the Central Bank told economist Jon Steinsson that David Oddson described Geir Haarde as an “idiot”.

- Sigurjon Th. Arnason says that the people from German bank Hauck & Aufhauser which fronted the offer from the S-Group for Bunadarbankinn could just as well have been buying an ice cream store. “It was absolutely no way that it could be betting so much money so I have been convinced that this was just a front.”

- Icelandic companies paid dividends of 463 billion ISK from 2003-2009. Scores of businesses paid out dividends despite losses and negative equity.

- According to Jon Asgeir Johannesson, the CEO’s of the three banks always behaved like children in meetings. The two “kings” Hreidar Mar Sigurdsson of Kaupthing and Sigurjon Th. Arnason of Landsbankinn were always sensitive to the other talking bad about the other and Larus Welding was the “pawn” inbetween.

- A 300 million payment to Larus Welding was delivered after he announced an improved balance sheet at the first quarterly meeting in 2008.

- Sigurdur Einarsson, Kaupthing CEO to Magnus Gudmundsson, CEO of Kaupthing Luxembourg: “Hi Magnus, We did not finalize a bonus for last year. I suggest 1 million Euros. What do you think? Rgrds. Se” Magnus’ reply: “Thanks, more than enough :-) ”.

- Landsbankinn should have been reported to the police because its loans to Bjorgolfur Thor one of its owners amounted to more than half of its equity or 55 billion.

- Elin Sigfusdottir was hired to work for Landsbankinn eight days after she approved a loan from Bunadarbankinn to Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson, Bjorgolfur Thor and Magnus Thorsteinsson to buy Landsbankinn.

- The total liabilities of the three banks + Straumur, SPRON and the S&L Bank were 14.250 billion ISK in October 2008, half connected to 246 business coalitions registered as connected to the banks. Loans were sometimes made without collateral and often just with the bank’s own shares as collateral.

- The banks lended out large amounts of foreign currency loans to individuals and businesses with income in ISK. Meanwhile they made agreements with large individuals and businesses connected to them which in fact transferred the currency risk from the biggest risk takers in the economy onto the public and smaller businesses.

- The banks’ Luxembourg operations were used to hinder transparancy. Five of Kaupthing’s riskiest loans in Lux involved large owners of the bank. Landsbankinn was used to finance Bjorgolfur Thor’s operations.

- Bjorgvin G. Sigurdsson, the minister of commerce who wasn’t invited to David’s and Geir’s meetings has resigned as chairman of the Social Democrats MP’s. He is urging for National Court to be assembled for the first time (examining the responsibility of ministers and government). He does not consider resigning as an MP on the other hand.

- After appearing on Silfur Egils in September 2008, stating there was no chance of his bank going under, Larus Welding transferred 318 million from his account to a foreign account. Good for him.

- Instead of examining the advice on offer from foreign journalists and experts, the government replied with helping the banks on a PR journey. Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarssdottir suggested that a Merrill Lynch expert should seek re-education and questioned his motive. For Thorgerdur’s own exposure to the banks see list of MP’s above.

- Glitnir’s risk assesment department did not have risk assessments on 20 of the bank’s largest borrowers.

- Steingrimur Ari Arason resigned from the privatization committee when the Icelandic banks were due for privatization, in disgust as he claimed that the politicians David Oddson and Halldor Asgrimsson were taking over the process.

- Ossur Skarphedinsson describes a government meeting with Halldor J. Kristjansson, Sigurjon Th. Arnason and Bjorgolfur Thor from Landsbankinn. “They came to introduce to us some “great offer”. And he (Bjorgolfur) sat there in his fine suit, a real “seller” and selling something where they were supposed to get Glitnir free and a lot of other things and then all the currency reserve and some “guarantee” as well. Halldor Kristjansson sat there like a beaten dog and didn’t comment much. Then the meeting was over. Sigurjon was there, there were pastries on the tables, cut in half, big pastries. Sigurjon a large man has a big mouth and when they were leaving, he got one of the pastries, shove it in his face and said, “I don’t believe in this, I don’t believe in this”. Then a hand with a gold-watch came and pulled him out of there.”

- Little is known about why Illugi Gunnarsson, Independence Party MP and Bjarni Benediktsson, Independence Party chairman and then a regular MP was meeting with Jon Asgeir Johannesson, Thorsteinn Mar Baldvinsson and others in Stodir’s headquarters at the end of September 2008. Bjarni was a shareholder in Glitnir through a company of his.

- Hreidar Mar Sigurdsson on David Oddson,  “He (David) used to speak ill of our competitors when we spoke under four eyes. Of course I thought of how he talks about me when I am not in the same room”

- Hannes Holmsteinn Gissurarson, thinks it is strange why the Special Investigation Committee chooses to focus on David Oddson’s negligence instead of looking at the fact that he was the only official warning about the crash.

- Birna Einarsdottir, current Islandsbanki(Glitnir) CEO and former executive with Glitnir to Styrmir Gunnarsson editor of Morgunbladid “You should stand by us. You should not criticize the banks or ask questions, you are supposed to stand by us”.

-  When Kaupthing’s London management thought it would become part of a rescue package from the UK government, Hector Sants, the chief of the UK financial authority said, “No, that’s not meant for you”.

- It surprised the Icelandic CEO’s to see the coordinated efforts of the British in the wake of the crash, comparatively the Icelanders seemed paralyzed.

- Larus Welding on the highly paid executives at Glitnir and Landsbankinn. “I often said to them in London, stop buying Porsche’s and drink so much liquor and then you’ll feel better, stop changing wifes, it will save you a lot of money”.

- “God damn it. Do I have to do it then?” Hreidar Mar Sigurdsson on what David Oddson said when Hreidar said Kaupthing could not lend Glitnir 600 million Euros.

- Sigurdur Einarsson: “We are in competition regarding employees in some of the places we operate and we are paying relatively low wages, even if they would seem incredibly high. The pay I have had at this bank since 2003 have been incredibly low compared to those with similar jobs. That’s the way it is.”

- Geir Haarde: “It is my sincere belief regarding the committee’s comments that none of them can lead to the conclusion that there was any negligence on my part according to the meaning of 2nd chapter.”

- On the report, blogger Jonas Kristjansson: It surprises me most in the report what sort of idiots Geir Haarde and David Oddsson were during and after the crash. Their incompetence is such that I would not trust them to go to the fish-store. Actually the government system was impotent at that time because of stupidity and lack of knowledge. Bureaucrats were mostly fronts, appointed by the ministers of the Independence Party. This tells me that the system will not be fixed any time soon with any other means than giving up sovereignty to international organizations. The EU is bad but it is a holiday compared to the idiocy which went on here. The nation simply cannot man important positions.”

- Hreidar Mar Sigurdsson: “Despite partying and socializing with the rich and famous in London, Armann had not managed to make any good contacs in the government or the official system, nor did he understand it enough.”

- So far not a single person named responsible in the report has declared responsibility.

Guardian: How Iceland’s banking flaws brought down the country’s economy

Reuters: Iceland probe accuses former PM and ex-central bank head

AP: Iceland bank meltdown under microscope

BBC: Icelandic authorities “negligent” over banking collapse

Deutche Welle: Extreme negligence caused Iceland’s economic collapse, report says

Telegraph: Iceland has its truth report into the financial crisis – now what about one for the UK?

WSJ: Iceland Government Slammed in Report on Banking Collapse

Related posts:

  1. The Icelandic Discourse in A Nutshell
  2. MP’s Two Million ISK Payment For Mishkin Report
  3. Just Some Private Business Downtown

The Special Investigation Committee’s Report

Monday, April 12th, 2010

Lack of respect towards normal and healthy ways of doing business within the business sector, especially the banks.

Politicians who did not understand or want to confront reality.

Special interests over national interests.

Just what we have been talking about in the last 18 months.

English translations available here.

Before writing about the report I need to read it. Unfortunately, I’ve got project deadlines at the university this week but I will get to it.

Related posts:

  1. No Committee Has Ever Had To Bring Its Nation Such Bad News
  2. Landsbankinn Praised For Best Annual Report 2007
  3. The Special Report – Bits & Pieces

The Special Investigation Committee’s Report

Monday, April 12th, 2010

Lack of respect towards normal and healthy ways of doing business within the business sector, especially the banks.

Politicians who did not understand or want to confront reality.

Special interests over national interests.

Just what we have been talking about in the last 18 months.

English translations available here.

Before writing about the report I need to read it. Unfortunately, I’ve got project deadlines at the university this week but I will get to it.

Related posts:

  1. Landsbankinn Praised For Best Annual Report 2007
  2. No Committee Has Ever Had To Bring Its Nation Such Bad News
  3. Delayed

10.10.10

Friday, April 2nd, 2010

It is a vacuum out there.

After a year and a half of turmoil and drama, things are sort of in-between at the moment in Iceland. The national referendum and its underwhelming effects seem to have let a lot of hot air out of the system and left things in limbo for now. Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson is nowhere to be seen, and the Independence Party seems to have adopted a policy of keeping mum to avoid losing the advance it seems to have in the city elections in Reykjavik. Instead the Confederation of Icelandic Employers and the Federation of Icelandic Fishing Vessel Owners have been left to keep the pressure on the government at any step. But still with the foot just lightly on the pedal, as they have promised to step on it in and run the government over in the autumn. Your average Jon and Gunna could care less for now, they are more concerned with eating chocolate Easter eggs and travelling as far away from any news media for the holidays as is humanly possible.

Meanwhile, pressure grows beneath Icelandic society, much like in Eyjafjallajokull where the volcano has been hogging the headlines for the past two weeks.

The story goes that there is a second crash looming and it is due later this year. The more dramatic of those prescient pundits even have a date ready, October 10, 2010.

10.10.10

It is not certain whether Roland Emmerich has a keen interest in Icelandic economic and political matters but the theory goes that by then the indebted households and businesses of Iceland will have been pushed past the limits they are currently operating within. Years of high interest rates and gruelling debt will start to tell for businesses that can only push their liabilities onto their paying customers for so long. Another sign of things being upside down in Iceland is the leftist prime minister Johanna Sigurdardottir promising severe cuts to be made in the bloated government left behind by the right wing politicians from years past.

The national referendum has not delivered what so many hoped it would, and some of us said it wouldn’t, a sympathetic wave across the world for Iceland. Holland and Britain appear to be in no hurry to negotiate a new deal. They can wait for now until Iceland gets its act together in presenting a united negotiating team. Meanwhile the IMF loans are uncertain if you would believe Dominique Strauss-Kahn who said recently that there might not be sufficient support for a loan to Iceland within the fund. Many dare not say so out loud but further IceSave and IMF delays could be disastrous for Iceland come autumn. Read between the lines and Mar Gudmundsson, Central Bank Governor and Jon Danielsson, LSE economist are whispering the unmentionable. Iceland needs to get its act together or expect a turn for the worse.

Iceland’s foreign policy and international relations are in a mess. Apart from the Social Democrats (who want Iceland into the EU), none of the political parties have produced plans to revive and enhance the country’s reputation and standing in the world. The other party in government appears to be on its way to becoming a haven for isolationists and the Independence Party and Progressive Party have yet to provide a credible road map for the country because of internal strife between special interests and ordinary party members. A scared and confused nation seems likely to vote against EU membership, but what will then become of Iceland’s participation in the EEA? With the country already operating under exemptions from the four freedoms through the currency restrictions, what benefits would Europe see in Iceland’s inclusion if the nation does not want to participate with the benefits and responsibilities associated?

Voters are confused for sure. The Best Party, running on a satirical campaign with popular comedian Jon Gnarr looks like it might get two places in Reykjavik City council? Is that alright, asked a political science professor last week? He should be more concerned with the 40% of those who took a stand in the latest poll and want to reward the Independence Party for its work on behalf of FL Group and Landsbankinn in the last few years. And then there are 40% who are undecided! As one political science professor remarked earlier in the winter, people are more interested in politics than before but less interested in politicians.

The economic disaster was a political catastrophe of course. In the aftermath of October 2008, various people were making comparisons with the downturns of Finland and Sweden in the 1990’s and literally said, “in two or three years when we will be on the up again…then”. But comparisons with different countries, different economies, different political landscapes are speculative at best, ignorant at worst. Sweden and Finland ended up in the European Union. There was a political and economic action which took place in those countries. The government has done much more than it is being given credit for but it is up against the wall in so many areas and appears to be crippled in too many ways. Right and left wing nutjobs can still be found who bemoan that while other economies spend their way out of recessions, this government is cutting down, failing to mention that the level of debt in the economy makes it impossible to adhere to “normal” economic laws. Ideological issues such as closing down strip clubs (left wing) and pushing for casinoes (right wing) are given priority over economic and international matters while enough confusion still reigns to avoid a calm and enlightened debate.

Last month I went to my bank and got 2.3 million knocked off the 20 million ISK I owed for my original 16.7 million apartment. Meanwhile a friend got 40 million knocked off the 90 million he owed for his original 45 million currency loan as he sold his apartment for 55 million and is completely off the hook. Another economic law turned on its head, while those who take the largest risks in Iceland reap the highest rewards, the never suffer the biggest losses. The fishing lobby now needs 200-300 billion ISK written down and is ready to do anything it takes to get those write offs without relinguishing the ownership of those who got the industry into such debt.

Maybe 10.10.10 is unavoidable.

Related posts:

  1. No To Useless Government “Solution”
  2. A 110% Folly
  3. For The Love Of Baugur’s Money

More Than Five Years?

Friday, March 26th, 2010
“The pain has been incredible. The government sold the banks to people with no banking experience and questionable management experience. To be honest I think it will take
more than five years to get out of this financial hole, unless we strike oil. Our credibility has been completely shattered.”

Related posts:

  1. The Worst Banking Crisis Of Any Country In 80 Years
  2. Reykjavik Energy Believes ISK Will Weaken More In Seven Years
  3. Euromoney In 2002: Questions over Landsbanki’s new shareholder

So What Happened After The Big Message Was Sent To The World With The IceSave “No” Vote?

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Well this is what happened….

…apart from the UK and Holland not showing any signs of rushing into negotiating…

….nothing.

Related posts:

  1. No Vote In IceSave Referendum
  2. An MP Answers Why She’ll Vote Yes on IceSave
  3. National Referendum: A Sad Day For Democracy in Iceland

For Or Against The Krona

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

I handed in a paper yesterday where I examined the correlation between self-image and opinion towards the krona.

The Icelandic krona has been praised by some as the nation’s saviour in some quarters while chastised as a root of many evils in others.

Where you stand on the issue seems to correlate with whether you perceive yourself as nationalistic or international.

Examining the political debate in Iceland, those with a nationalistic self-image are highly likely to view the krona in favourable light, those with a more international self-image were more likely to view it with suspicion and be more open for the adoption of foreign currencies.

So even if economic factors are obviously important, underlying emotional factors also contribute to the policies of the parties.

Related posts:

  1. Another Icelandic Crisis: And Yet, the Krona Doesn’t Seem to Care
  2. How Much Is A Krona Worth?
  3. Double market

The Monkfish That Destabilized Iceland

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

So is the stability agreement between the government, the unions and the Confederation of Icelandic employers in danger because of an extra 2.000 tons quota of monkfish?

It might be if you listen to Vilhjalmur Egilsson, the chairman of the employers’ confederation. On the radio this morning, he was asked to rationalize how that could possibly be, he avoided any answers but those that voiced concern for overfishing.

So has the confederation become a scientific committee? Or are there larger interests at play?

Isn’t this somehow more of a political move, the radio host asked? The Federation of Icelandic Fishing Vessels Owners is a key member of the confederation. Their websites are even strikingly similar. What the radio host was indicating was that the larger politics at play, dictate that these two organizations are going to do everything possible to rattle the boat for the government.

So it might be true that the monkfish is threatening the stability agreement, but maybe not in the way these two organizations would like people to think. The government might be struggling on many fronts but some things are not being made easier for it.

Someone painted a larger picture this morning. All of a sudden aircraft maintenance engineers and air traffic controllers are striking and upsetting one of the key infrastructure in Iceland, international flight. Why these two groups would chose this time to strike is intriguing. The air traffic controllers are very well paid compared to most Icelanders. And the aircraft engineers have come out to “claim back what they lost in the economic collapse”!!!

Well wouldn’t we all like for that to happen?

Why striking for higher pay right now when just about everyone in society has bigger burdens to bear than before?

Could it be that there are forces at play behind the scenes who want to destabilize things so that certain parties cannot maintain a working government?

Related posts:

  1. Looking Forward Without Petur
  2. A Vote In The North Is Worth More Than A Life In The South.
  3. Ogmundur’s Hissy Fit

How Icelandic Strip Club Lessons Can Help Save The Environment

Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

During a class on security issues we got to listen to an expert from the city of Reykjavik on the topic of environmental security.

She pointed an interesting folly whereas bauxite is transported from across the world to Iceland where it is smelted to make aluminium. From there it is transported abroad and made into soda cans. People buy the soda cans then throw them away. More bauxite is transported from around the world to Iceland to make more aluminium and therefore we need more aluminium smelters. This was really a vicious circle which contributed to an enormous waste, from single use of recyclable materials to petrol consumption by ships that travel the world to bring raw materials to production.

I offered some advice based on the new laws proposed to outlaw stripping in Iceland. If a government or city council decides that some things are not desirable in society then it can implement laws an guidelines to counter their practice. A few years ago everyone smoked in Icelandic bars and nightclubs. Not anymore, because it was deemed undesirable for the kind of society we want.

I also offered the Singapore chewing gum ban as an example but I think she stopped listening when I said the word stripping.

I explained further that society was obviously conforming to the needs of soft-drink producers in the case of aluminium soda cans. If society can outlaw smoking in bars and stripping, then what is stopping it from cutting down aluminium consumption if it could lessen waste, encourage recycling and minimize the need for more smelters? Selling soda in easily recyclable and biodegradable packaging? A smart soft-drink producer would not waste any time in turning it into great PR for himself, even if the change were forced upon him.

Could it be that it is easier to think of a ban on strip clubs than on soda cans because there are fewer people directly affected? That we take some things for so granted that it is hard to see the possibility for change? Like soda in biodegradable paper containers?

Or could it just be a matter of thinking outside the box…or in this case into the strip club.

PS: Sometimes I just have to think about other things than IceSave, household debts and general corruption. Strip clubs and soda cans are a nice diversion.

PPS: The Waiting for Godot game continues, the congressional report is now due after Easter. Which year is unclear.

PPPS: There is a nice little volcano showing off in South Iceland. Don’t worry. Someone has already blamed the government.

Related posts:

  1. Olafur Ragnar Grimsson’s Dozen Lessons In Business Icelandic Style – “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet”
  2. 100 kg’s Of Illegal Drugs Apprehended – Why Now?
  3. Progressive Party To Save The Day…Or Not Really

Texting Away The EU Debate

Saturday, March 20th, 2010

I have been to a few radio and television interviews where people are supposed to discuss events and debate their opinions.

Usually I have found people respecting of each others time to state their case and willingness to listen.

Yesterday was the first time though where I have been where the EU membership was one of the topics.

And I understand the nature of the debate so much more now.

Amongst the participants, the chairwoman of Young People Against EU Membership.

First she praised the krona on the same grounds as Steingrimur J. Sigfusson did last week.

When I explained how the fall of the krona destroys assets and home equity she picked up her cell phone to text someone apparently more important.

Then she said that we could so easily adopt the Euro without EU membership.

From then European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Chief Economist Willem Buiter’s 2001 report “Er Ísland Hagkvæmt Myntsvæði?” :

When all things are considered, economic reasons recommend an entry into the European Monetary Union, but not with a one-sided approach. But as Iceland is not a member of the EU, political reasoning goes totally against pretty much any monetary union. Without participation in the EU, it is not politically convincing to endorse parts of Iceland’s sovereignty to the European Central Bank. The institutions who could ensure the liabilities of the Central Bank towards Iceland do not exist and therefore it is unlikely that Iceland would take up the Euro without entering the European Union. Such a move would just simply not be feasible in the long term.

It is true that Iceland could single handedly adopt the Euro but then it would be surrendering its monetary sovereignty to the European Central Bank?
Those who are against the EU on sovereignty grounds, are still prepared to hand over complete monetary sovereignty to the EU without having any say in its operation.
It does not make sense.
But the chairwoman did not seem to be there for a debate or a discussion. When others spoke, she kept texting on her cell-phone.
I got the message. She was not there to listen.

Related posts:

  1. Iceland warms to the EU
  2. How Much Is A Krona Worth?
  3. Premier Wants Iceland to Join European Union

What Fear And Confusion Will Get You

Friday, March 19th, 2010

Are you confused as to why the Independence Party is now topping the polls with 40,3% and adding 11 new members of Althingi if the vote were today?

Don’t be. Voters are illogical, as is evident by this excellent summary from an article in Time. They would even vote for the party which caused the biggest economic downfall worldwide in recent history:

With these acts of legislative sabotage, Republicans tapped into a deep truth about the American people: they hate political squabbling, and they take out their anger on whoever is in charge. So when the Gingrich Republicans carried out a virtual sit-down strike during Clinton’s first two years, the public mood turned nasty. By 1994, trust in government was at an all-time low, which suited the Republicans fine, since their major line of attack against Clinton’s health care plan was that it would empower government. Clintoncare collapsed, Democrats lost Congress, and Republicans learned the secrets of vicious-circle politics: When the parties are polarized, it’s easy to keep anything from getting done. When nothing gets done, people turn against government. When you’re the party out of power and the party that reviles government, you win.

From Time.com

It might have been a politically tactical mistake for the parties on the left to ask for an election in 2009. By taking the helm at this lowest point in Iceland’s history they have put themselves in the firing line, especially the Social Democrats who suffer the biggest damage.

Voters are strange like that. They’d rather blame the fire department than the arsonist if the fire is damaging enough.

And by delaying an IceSave solution, the opposition has cost the country dearly in lost recovery time. But the voters blame the government. That is the nature of the beast. This is fear and confusion at work.

But many of us who agree that this government is a better option than anything with the party which orchestrated the downfall have been really disappointed. Maybe things would be a little bit different if the Social Democratic / Left Green fire department had concentrated on putting out the fires in the bedrooms instead of the wine cellar?

Before the Independence Party has gone through reform and kicked the bad habits that are the fishing lobby and David Oddson’s isolationism, the Independence Party can not be allowed back into government. It would not necessarily be in their best interests to reclaim their seat in government until after the ghosts of the past have been exorcised. When that happens, the Independence Party will have moved significantly towards the spectrum where Social Democrat voters believe their party should be.

The most critical number in the poll for any of the parties, or any new parties which might be on the horizon are the 40% who are undecided. The government should remember that Clinton did win re-election two years later. Most people realised that their frustrations could bring them a Newt Gingrich / Bob Dole double act and weren’t quite so keen on that one.  But Iceland can not afford a repeat of what happened in 2000 in the US. The long term consequences of an unreformed Independence Party in government could be catastrophic.

Related posts:

  1. The Essence Of Current Icelandic Politics (Borrowed from the US)
  2. The co-insuring grip of terror
  3. Iceland Takes Two Steps To The Left

What Is Missing From The “Definite” Household Debt Solutions?

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

Because of time limitations (only 24 hours in the day) I am very grateful to Vilhjalm A. and Gandri for putting down in words exactly what I have been pondering about what Johanna Sigurdardottir calls the “definite solution to finally meet the required needs of Icelandic households”.

From Vilhjalm A. (translations mine ):

Finally the government has come out with their version the of the “skjaldborg” – the fortress around Icelandic homes.

Here’s what the government proposes to do:

- special solutions for those with low income or have suffered short term drop in wages
- solutions for people with two homes
- lower limits on penal interest rates
- on foreclosure, the market value of homes will be withdrawn from claims
- people will be able to live in their home for 12 months in spite of bankruptcy or foreclosure
- the limits on collection fees lowered
- rules on tax claims write offs reviewed
- moderate write offs tax free
- large write offs taxed
- effects of price indexation limited

The average employed working Icelander with a mortgage gets ….. just about nothing. No reduction / write-down of the mortgage principal. No way to negotiate with the banks, except by filing a lawsuit against them.
But if you own TWO homes, congratulations, you get relief – just give back one of the houses!

Oh my! This is going to be costly. How should we finance the rebuilding? - Johanna and Steingrimur at the household debt cliff drawn by Halldor Baldursson

See the critical article by Samtök lánþega blog, entitled “Ekki neitt !” (Nothing!):
http://gandri.com/?p=885

There is nothing on previously defined solutions for mortgage adjustments.

There is nothing there on actions to force financial institutions to abide by the laws.

There is nothing there about interpreting unclear contractual obligations in the favor of consumers, as is clearly stated in Icelandic law that it should.

There is nothing there about actions to stop collection methods based on contracts which have been judged illegal by Icelandic courts.

There is nothing there about speeding up those court cases awaiting a Supreme Court’s decision.

There is nothing on the ideas of individual MP’s about the so-called “key-bill”.

There is nothing there on the ideas of individual MP’s about lowering the statue of limitations on individuals from 10 years down to 4.

Vilhjalm A again:

In the meantime the banks are happily handing out huge loan write-downs to businesses and granting themselves salary bonuses.

I don’t think it’s possible any longer to pretend that the government has some secret plan or motive to help the average Icelander. And the do-nothing strategy is not the result of ineptitude, either. It’s looking more and more likely that the real intention of the government is to reduce the need for imports by depriving the average person of almost all available discretionary spending, first by increasing taxes on everything and second by making them spend almost all their money on paying off loans to the banks. You can’t spend what you don’t have.

Finally my own two cents: The way they presented these “solutions” does not bode well for the Social Democrats or the Left Greens. Sure it is a step in the right direction, but the focus is on soothing the pain for those who overextended themselves during the good times, a strange emphasis for the so-called “welfare” government. It might be possible that there has developed a siege-mentality within the government after the monumental tasks it has faced since assuming the responsibility to clean up in the economic disaster area. But by calling this a definite solution and pretending like this is going to put things to rest regarding the massive household debt Icelanders are facing because of the collapse of the krona, the government appears out of touch.

Related posts:

  1. Discussion On Household Debt Held Hostage By Progressive Party
  2. The Icelandic Banks Question of The Day
  3. Iceland In Debt

Bankers Bonuses And Perspectives

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

How are they trying to cook this up?

The banks are now agitating for re installing bonus systems for the employees of their private banking and corporate banking divisions.

Now it is great if bonus systems are available for employees, but when implementing those some basic questions must be answered. What are we rewarding?

Remember, these are the banks whose collective bankruptcies put them in third place over the largest corporate bankruptcies in the US according to Jared Bibler of the Financial Authority!

Anywhere in the US! Ever!

Just Kaupthing manages fifth place on that list, above such luminaries as Enron, Texaco, Chrysler and Pacific Gas. Landsbankinn is in ninth place and Glitnir tenth.

The result from Iceland’s heady experiment with becoming a global financial player is three Icelandic businesses which would make the US top ten bankruptcy list!

Three!

For a country with just over 300.000 inhabitants that must be some sort of galactic record.

Those bankruptcies can hardly be blamed on the staff of the banks’ retail branches who were lending mortgages, overdrafts and credit cards. No the problems must have really started at a higher level. Like private banking and corporate banking.

And the staff is much the same as before the crash. And now they want bonuses again.

How does that work? A successful private banking employee works the phone and his contact list again and again to make money for his division. Do Stefan and Anna really pick up the phone and say, “Hey remember that 100 million you entrusted me with in 2006-2007? Yeah, shame about that. But let me tell you about the great opportunities our asset management team has discovered for you now”.

What on earth are their customers thinking?

There shouldn’t be any reason for any customers to continue banking with the same people and the same banks…unless.

Unless those same customers have benefited somehow from handsome write-offs. And that would especially make sense at the corporate level, and to a lesser extent in private banking.

Anyhow, what is going to happen if these bonuses are not approved of? Are these employees just going to stand up and leave?

And so what? Where are they going to go? Are they really sought after in the City, Wall Street, Dubai or Copenhagen? The management should at least not worry about finding enough talent to fill their shoes at this moment in time. With close to 10% unemployment and a highly educated workforce, that shouldn’t be a problem.

Social Democratic MP Robert Marshall today said that if these bonuses would become reality then they should be taxed to the hilt. A welcome sign that there still is life in that party. But would the Social Dems really dare? Or are old habits really just too hard to break?

Related posts:

  1. “Why Should These People Be Paid Bonuses?”
  2. Apology Accepted But Let’s Talk About This Bonus System Thing
  3. Weak authority

A 110% Folly

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

The minister of social affairs now wants to write off car loans which are overextended down to 110% of the market value of the car.

A big relief for those who have seen their loans double, but a major folly.

Yesterday I heard a Social Democrat explain how the Independence Party majority in Reykjavik’s city council was sitting pretty having adopted a Social Democratic hue.

It is outrageous to think that the Social Democrats are turning the same trick in government and playing Independence Party ball. Instead of erecting that fortress around Icelandic households and tackling the debts which are plaguing those who were financially responsible before the crash, the government and the banks have wasted no energy in saving those who loaded themselves with debt, and took those riskier currency loans instead of loans in ISK.

So who were able to get 90-110% loans in the preceding years? Who were avidly speculating in currency loans? Could that group be mostly comprised of bankers and business owners? Those who had higher wages which now have maybe been halved or more.

Consider the cases of these fictional Icelanders:

A) Who took a 100% currency loan on a 30 million ISK home and has seen it go up to 60 million ISK. Market value today estimated at 25 million. Ends up with 27.5 million after the banks and the minister of social affairs have had their say.

B) Who saved 10 million, bought a 30 million ISK home and has seen the 20 million loan go up to 24 million. Market value today estimated at 25 million. No write offs!

Rewarding the risk takers? From which end of the spectrum is Arni Pall Arnason and the Social Democrats approaching the debt issue?

This is especially interesting following the revelations that the new banks got the loans transferred from the old banks at a 31-47% discount.

And then the Gylfi Magnusson, minister of economic affairs has said that the banks are unable to write off loans for average customers because they have to write off such huge amounts for businesses. Others say that that is not true, those were left in the old banks. Which is it? We don’t know because there is extreme breakdown of communication from the government to its people.

So the government which was going to erect a fortress appears to be building a future on building new banks on the backs of average customers and writing off loans for those who took the highest risks

This is all the more galling since there has been an array of advice from world class economists like Stiglitz, Zingales and others available to the government. But maybe the 110% folly is just preferable for some reason? Maybe Icelandic politicians have not been trained to look outside themselves and their own ranks for solutions.

Related posts:

  1. A Mediocre Mind In An Extraordinary Time
  2. The Currency Loans Were Legal – The Dark Side Of The Government’s Inept Solutions
  3. Will there be a fair solution?

The Independence Party’s Promise (Video)

Friday, March 12th, 2010

The Icelandic government’s economic advisor Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson, on a leave from his post as CEO of Askar Capital Investment Bank and two years after his whitewash report on the Icelandic economy with Columbia professor Mishkin, with some interesting promises to the BBC on October 4, 2008.

What happened next? The Independence Party’s voters elected Tryggvi as an Althingi MP.

Also in the beginning, a certain someone who says he tried to warn everyone about the impending disaster.

Related posts:

  1. Finally Debt Relief…For Independence Party MP
  2. An Independence Party Split?
  3. For Iceland To Get Back On Its Feet Important Reform Is Needed Within Independence Party


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