The worst of the Icelandic kreppa (economic crisis) is potentially over already and better prospects can already be anticipated by the New Year. According to mbl.is, this is among the key points in an economists’ report published this week by the Icelandic Ministry of Finance introducing a national economic forecast for 2009-2014.
The economic forecast says that the country’s ability to adapt flexibly to new economic circumstances is strong. Real wages have decreased and the cost competitiveness of Icelandic companies is in good shape. Renewed demand from overseas will help business and support new job creation.
The forecast reiterates the importance of refinancing the banks as quickly as possible, and of lifting currency exchange controls, both in order to improve international trust in the treasury’s financial position. Households have been hit hard by the financial crisis, but 90 percent (presumably of homeowners, ed.) are still in paid employment. The report states that laws passed to help hard-hit families get over the worst of the crisis appear to be working. It is also important to loosen controls on the business environment and support investment to increase employment.
The Economy Office at the Ministry of Finance predicts that inflation in Iceland will be 10.2 percent this year and reducing quickly to 1.6 percent next year and 1.9 percent in 2011. The Office also predicts that unemployment will continue to increase to 9.6 percent next year, and will be roughly 9 percent this year before going down to 7.5 percent in 2011. These figures apparently include the potential employment created by a new aluminium smelter planned at Helguvik and the extension of the existing smelter at Straumsvik. If the projects do no go ahead, the Office expects unemployment to be 0.5 percent higher in 2010 and 1 percent higher in 2011.
The national economic forecast says that the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of the Icelandic housing stock has been around 60-70 percent in recent years but will fall to around 44 percent by the end of the year. Ministry of Finance analysts cautioned against panic at a press conference this week, saying that early indicators point to a rapidly improving economic picture in the New Year, leading to an increase in the CAR.
On the other hand, they also reiterated again the need to assist families experiencing the worst problems paying their housing costs.